Calm
Supportive liquidity backdrop where broad risk-taking and equity beta tend to work well.
Recommended allocation: 45% VT, 30% BTC, 20% Gold, 5% Cash
Howell Regime Dashboard
A public-data proxy for identifying the current stage of the global liquidity cycle.
Speculation
Late-cycle liquidity is getting frothier, so you start paying back risk and leaning more defensive.
Recommended allocation: 35% VT, 20% BTC, 30% Gold, 15% Cash
Turbulence
A true risk-off phase where capital preservation and dry powder matter more than upside capture.
Recommended allocation: 25% VT, 10% BTC, 25% Gold, 40% Cash
Rebound
Early-cycle recovery where improving liquidity supports renewed upside in equities and other risk assets.
Recommended allocation: 50% VT, 25% BTC, 20% Gold, 5% Cash
Current regime
Current regime: Calm
Conditions look broadly supportive; no major transition signal yet.
Total stress score
0
Red indicators
0
Yellow indicators
0
Updated
4/22/2026, 3:03:57 PM
VIX · normal / calm
19.5
Volatility is relatively contained.
20d change -6.6; 75th pct 22.8; 90th pct 28.6. Source: FRED VIXCLSUS High-Yield OAS · normal / calm
2.85%
Credit spreads are relatively calm.
20d change -0.34 pts; 75th pct 3.67; 90th pct 4.15. Source: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2SOFR - IORB Spread · normal / calm
-2.0 bps
Funding spread looks normal.
Current -0.020%; 60d avg 0.004%; deviation -2.4 bps. Source: FRED SOFR and IORBSt. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index · normal / calm
-0.76
Broader financial conditions remain calm.
8w change -0.27; 75th pct 0.25; 90th pct 0.81. Source: FRED STLFSI4S&P 500 Trend · normal / calm
7064
Equity trend remains supportive.
vs 200d avg 5.6%; 20d change 7.3%. Source: FRED SP500How to read this
- 0 = normal / calm
- 1 = warning / speculation-like
- 2 = stress / turbulence-like
The dashboard is intentionally heuristic. It is not a reproduction of Michael Howell’s proprietary model. This deployed version uses public FRED series only so it stays reliable on Cloudflare while still tracking the late-cycle transition you care about.
Indicators included
- VIX: cross-asset volatility proxy
- US High-Yield OAS: refinancing and credit-risk stress
- SOFR - IORB spread: secured funding-market stress
- St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index: broad financial-conditions stress
- S&P 500 trend: risk appetite vs 200-day trend
Historical regimes
Historical rows use the latest one year of overlapping source data and are shown newest first. Because the financial-stress series updates more slowly than the others, this table follows that slower cadence.
| Date | Regime |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Calm |
| 2026-04-10 | Calm |
| 2026-03-27 | Speculation |
| 2026-03-20 | Speculation |
| 2026-03-13 | Speculation |
| 2026-03-06 | Speculation |
| 2026-02-27 | Calm |
| 2026-02-20 | Calm |
| 2026-02-13 | Rebound |
| 2026-02-06 | Calm |
| 2026-01-30 | Rebound |
| 2026-01-23 | Rebound |
| 2026-01-16 | Rebound |
| 2026-01-09 | Rebound |
| 2026-01-02 | Rebound |
| 2025-12-26 | Calm |
| 2025-12-19 | Calm |
| 2025-12-12 | Calm |
| 2025-12-05 | Calm |
| 2025-11-28 | Speculation |
| 2025-11-21 | Speculation |
| 2025-11-14 | Calm |
| 2025-11-07 | Calm |
| 2025-10-31 | Speculation |
| 2025-10-24 | Rebound |
| 2025-10-17 | Speculation |
| 2025-10-10 | Speculation |
| 2025-10-03 | Calm |
| 2025-09-26 | Rebound |
| 2025-09-19 | Rebound |
| 2025-09-12 | Rebound |
| 2025-09-05 | Rebound |
| 2025-08-29 | Rebound |
| 2025-08-22 | Rebound |
| 2025-08-15 | Rebound |
| 2025-08-08 | Rebound |
| 2025-08-01 | Rebound |
| 2025-07-25 | Rebound |
| 2025-07-18 | Rebound |
| 2025-07-11 | Rebound |
| 2025-06-27 | Rebound |
| 2025-06-20 | Calm |
| 2025-06-13 | Calm |
| 2025-06-06 | Rebound |
| 2025-05-30 | Calm |
| 2025-05-23 | Calm |
| 2025-05-16 | Calm |
| 2025-05-09 | Calm |
| 2025-05-02 | Calm |
| 2025-04-25 | Speculation |